Bubbles for Fama

We evaluate Eugene F. Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns (1926?2014) and international sector returns (1985?2014), we present four findings (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash but not of a further price boom; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, turnover, issuance, and the price path of the run-up, help forecast an eventual crash; and (4) these attributes also help forecast future returns. Results hold similarly in US and international samples.     

Media heterogeneity and post‐earnings announcement drift: evidence from China

This paper examines how the Chinese stock market acts differently towards state‐controlled and market‐oriented media coverage. Using a setting of post‐earnings announcement drift, we find that information from state‐controlled media enters the stock price in a timelier manner, while the message from market‐oriented media needs more time to get a response from investors. The effect is also influenced by whether the type of news coverage is good or bad. Our findings suggest that the capital market underreacts when good news is reported by the market‐oriented media.     

The information content of funds from operations and net income in real estate investment trusts

This study compares the information content of funds from operations (FFO) and net income (NI) in the real estate investment trust (REIT) industry. We find that models using FFO explain more of the variance in cumulative abnormal returns around earnings announcement dates than models using NI do. We also find that the information content of FFO differs across REITs of different sizes. FFO does not provide useful information to investors in the case of large REITs. Finally, we show that the gain or loss from sales of property is relevant to valuing large REITs.     

Vertical separation of transmission control and market efficiency in the wholesale electricity market

This study examines how vertical separation of transmission control affects the wholesale market efficiency in the electric power industry. We analyze a unique regional electricity wholesale market in the U.S. where initially restructuring only occurred in the transmission sector. Following a commonly-used best dispatch model (Wolfram, 1999; Borenstein et al., 2002), we simulate competitive benchmark prices and compare with the best estimates available for actual prices to measure price-cost markups of the wholesale market. Empirical results demonstrate that the vertical separation of transmission control led to a significant increase in market markups in peak-load hours, documenting evidence of enhanced market power. Although we also find a reduction in the price-cost margin in low-demand hours, we reserve caution for this finding.     

Foreign exchange customers and dealers: Who’s driving whom?

This paper tests the theoretical assumption of the foreign exchange market microstructure that dealers and non-dealer customers interact over discrete trading rounds. An exhaustive frequency-domain analysis reveals that the interaction is limited and mainly due to the instability of financial markets. The principal finding is that the trading activity of dealers is able to predict the customer order flow at low frequencies with wavelengths longer than roughly a week. In all, the evidence shows that non-financial customers are not as passive as some other research has suggested.     

Stabilizing the market with short sale constraint? New evidence from price jump activities

We re-examine the impact of short-sale constraints (SSC) on market stabilization via realized jump activities during 2002–2009 to circumvent the reverse causality in identifying the policy effects of SSC. We observed that the abnormal downturns under tighter short sale constraints are significantly larger whereas there is no difference for abnormal upturns. Our empirical results survive across a sequence of robustness examinations controlled for market illiquidity. The findings do not support the claims by regulators that restraining short-sales can stabilize prices; instead, SSC has led to a less efficient market with stronger extreme downward returns.     

The market microstructure of the European climate exchange

This paper analyzes the market microstructure of the European Climate Exchange, the largest EU ETS trading venue. The ECX captures 2/3 of the screen traded market in EUA and more than 90% in CER. Volume growth has averaged 277% in EUA between 2005 and 2009 and 724% in CER since 2007. Spreads range from €0.0188 to €0.0406 for EUA and €0.0276 to €0.0796 for CER. The median proportion of the spread due to adverse selection reaches 76% for EUA and 75% for CER. Realized volatility, bid-ask spreads and adverse selection costs decline with verified emission releases. Market impact estimates imply that an average trade will move the EUA market by 1.06 euro centimes and the CER market 1.45. The ECX is providing between 75% and 88% of price discovery for EUA trading and between 64% and 72% for CER. We find imbalances in the order book help predict returns for up to three days. A simple trading strategy that enters the market long or short when the order imbalance is strong is profitable even after accounting for spreads and market impact.     

Does insider trading explain price run‐up ahead of takeover announcements?

This study empirically examines the impact of changes in substantial shareholdings ahead of 450 Australian takeover offers between the years 2000 and 2009. Previous studies have attributed a significant proportion of the price run‐up effect in takeover targets to insider‐trading behaviour. This study examines the contribution of a broad range of public information sources that are known to typically generate market anticipation, including the acquisition of toeholds ahead of takeover announcements. Our findings show no significant pre‐bid run‐up for takeover targets after considering these sources. We conclude from these results that previous findings attributing pre‐bid share price run‐up to illegal insider trading may overstate the existence of such conduct.     

Augmented reality experiences and sensation seeking

Studies about augmented reality (AR) largely discuss the design of applications and adoption behaviours of the AR system. Attempts to understand user experiences with AR are scarce, especially in the field of tourism. This paper contributes to this gap by identifying travellers' experiences with AR applications when obtaining travel information. More specifically, this study applied the concept of sensation-seeking to segment travellers to better understand their AR experiences. An online questionnaire was designed and completed by a sample of 1042 study participants who all used an AR app in the course of this study. The results demonstrate the applicability of sensation-seeking to explain heterogeneous AR experiences. Of the four sensation-seeking elements, experience-seeking and boredom-susceptibility were identified as key elements to classify the travel groups in the context of AR applications. Managerial implications for tourism marketers are suggested.     

Net neutrality and market power: The case of South Africa

Net neutrality rules have been implemented in many developed countries, often in response to concerns over network operator market power and potential blocking or throttling of content. However, developing countries typically have significantly lower levels of internet penetration and usage. Market power in respect of internet access looks quite different given that mobile is the predominant means of connection and there are often three or more mobile operators. In South Africa, there is a quasi-monopoly in the paid satellite broadcasting market and broadband providers zero-rating content from third parties (such as Netflix) may bring about more competition. We test the main theories of harm arising in the net neutrality debate, including network operator market power and exclusion among content providers using data on the number of announced prefixes and peers and IP addresses and considering examples of bundling and zero-rating conduct by operators. We find that net neutrality rules are less likely to be required in South Africa and other developing countries and that strict enforcement of such rules could in fact hinder competition in markets for content, telecommunications networks and other related markets.